How does a new startup drive the popularity of competing websites intooblivion like Facebook famously did to MySpace? This question is of greatinterest to academics, technologists, and financial investors alike. In thiswork we exploit the singular way in which Facebook wiped out the popularity ofMySpace, Hi5, Friendster, and Multiply to guide the design of a new popularitycompetition model. Our model provides new insights into what Nobel LaureateHerbert A. Simon called the "marketplace of attention," which we recast as theattention-activity marketplace. Our model design is further substantiated byuser-level activity of 250,000 MySpace users obtained between 2004 and 2009.The resulting model not only accurately fits the observed Daily Active Users(DAU) of Facebook and its competitors but also predicts their fate four yearsinto the future.
展开▼
机译：一家新的创业公司如何像Facebook著名的MySpace一样，将竞争网站的流行性抹杀？这个问题对学者，技术人员和金融投资者都非常感兴趣。在这项工作中，我们采用了Facebook消除MySpace，Hi5，Friendster和Multiply的流行的单一方式，以指导新的流行竞争模型的设计。我们的模型提供了关于诺贝尔奖获得者赫伯特·西蒙（Herbert A. Simon）所称的“关注市场”的新见解，我们将其改写为关注活动市场。我们的模型设计进一步得到2004年至2009年期间获得的25万名MySpace用户级别的活动的支持，结果模型不仅准确地符合了Facebook及其竞争对手的每日活动用户（DAU），而且还预测了其未来四年的命运。
展开▼
